2007 FANTASY BASEBALL PREVIEW

The baseball season is finally here, and fantasy owners' long winter of discontent is finally over. When it comes to (Yahoo!) fantasy baseball, the same basic principles that apply to investing and personal finance apply. Nobody can predict injuries, so it is imperative to not factor in injuries when predicting future success of major league baseball players. There are four keys to success that will help maximize fantasy baseball success: value, flexibility, knowledge, and balance. The single most important ingredient to winning your fantasy baseball league is value. Value is knowing which round to draft specific players or filling certain needs (saves, stolen bases, etc.). For example, compare the numbers of Juan Pierre and Dave Roberts in 2006. Juan Pierre goes about ten rounds earlier than Dave Roberts, but their stolen base numbers are similar. Also, juxtapose the 2006 stats of Travis Hafner, Jim Thome, and Frank Thomas. Hafner goes early-mid second round, Thome fifth or sixth round, Frank Thomas mid-late teens, yet their stats in '06 are similar. First Base is deep - if you miss out on Howard, Ortiz, Teixera, do not fret- keep your eyes on Sexson, Cuddeyer, Adrian Gonzalez, and Lyle Overbay later in the draft. This year, starting pitching is extremely deep. I never touch a starting pitcher before round four. If a stud, such as Roy Halladay or Carlos Zambrano, is available at the middle of round four, I will draft a starter, but I let the other owners draft Santana, Carpenter, Oswalt, and Peavy early. Do not be tempted or pressured if there is a "run" in your draft. Often times, there will be a "run" on a specific position or statistic (3B, steals, saves, etc.). Usually, when a run occurs, some sucker is pressured into drafting a player too early, in fear that they will not be able to draft that position later in the draft. These "runs" can provide great value, as other managers are overlooking the best available players, in order to prematurely fill out their rosters. I do like to draft a couple of quality closers in the eighth-twelfth rounds, but keep in mind that once you have filled your roster out, or you are close to filling out your roster, to draft RPs that have a good chance of being closers soon (Dan Wheeler, Jonathan Broxton, Mike Gonzalez, etc.). These value picks in the late teen rounds can often give you the league lead in an often overlooked statistic, such as saves. Also keep in mind, that while a reliever/closer may not rack up a lot of innings, they tend to not only provide saves, but low ERA and WHIP, that will help your overall pitching statistics. Another important aspect of a successful draft is to have a strategy that is flexible and balanced. Many times I will start off with a goal to draft bats in the first six or seven rounds, then pick up closers/starters the following four or five rounds, then filling out the rest of my lineup the rest of the draft. That being said, if a stud starter or closer (Halladay, B.J. Ryan, etc.) is available in the fifth, flexibility is key. Other draft strategies to consider are a 2x2x2 system, where you draft the two best bats, then the two best starters, then the two best closers with your first six picks. A 4x4 strategy is similar, but with your first four bats, you make sure to have balance of speed and power (Crawford, Manny, Rollins, Abreu) then focus on power pitchers with low ERA and WHIP (B.J. Ryan, K-Rod, Schmidt, D-Train. Again, flexibility is key, never let strategy interfere with success; always make sure to keep focused on victory.

Having knowledge of fantasy baseball is much more than listening to Eric Karabell or the "Talented Mr. Roto" on ESPN. Remember, they are giving their personal predictions and opinions. Do your own homework. Keep in mind if a player is in a contract year, if a batter or pitcher moved to a new team (if the ballpark is hitter or pitcher friendly), and if a player is injury prone, but remember that you cannot control injuries- control the controllable. An injured player in '06 may provide great value in '07, always do your homework. Look for trends, protection in a lineup, and study rookies/young players who often times fly under the radar, and can deliver fantasy baseball success.

Whether we are discussing investments, personal finance, or fantasy baseball, the same basic rules apply- value, balance, knowledge, and flexibility will always give you the upper hand, and just like in every day life, flexibility is key.