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ELECTION SPECULATION I'll be the first to admit that that I, like many Americans, tend to take the word of my favorite candidate as more justifiable and true than our opponents. At the same time, my inherent sense of pessimism causes me to plant my flag in the territory of "devils advocate" more often than my party affiliate brethren would prefer to acknowledge. As such, I tend to rely on factual basis versus the herd mentality. I encourage intelligent debate and will be the first to admit that I have often changed sides for a compelling argument. I've chosen to write this article for XEKE.com on the preface that it provides a platform for debate, intelligent discussion, and the inherent risk that I could swallow my words. With that brief intro, I'll toss into the ring my speculation for this November:
McCain in a landslide. Write it down, toss it on your outlook calendar for 11/5, etch it in stone or put a sticky on the fridge. My rationale is simple. Much like macroeconomic's rational choice theory, I believe that voters (like investors), when presented with all available information, make decisions about how they should act by comparing the costs and benefits of different courses of action. As individuals make these decisions, trends develop in a society. Now let's separate the two parts of this theory.
Until recently much information about Barack Obama had not been uncovered. The societal trends that developed in 2007 and carried through the Democratic primary were premised by a lack of readily available information. I could go on and on about the "rock star" status, lack of experience, questionable relationships, etc. But I won't. The educated voter is gathering information about the candidates and creating an informed decision. And I believe the tides are turning. As long as Nancy Pelosi tries to tell America that the Catholic Church is unclear on abortion and Obama tells us that those decisions are "above [his] pay grade", I believe that Middle America will continue to move to the McCain camp.
And let us not forget, Middle America is what this election is about. It's not about race. It's not about middle names. It's not about the south side of Chicago. It's not about who is proud of their country for the first time or who has been proud of America their entire life. It's about what the majority of America believes is best for his or her family. When it comes time to pull the lever in November, every American will make a decision about how they should act by comparing the costs and benefits of different courses of action with all of the available information. Information, not John McCain, is Barack Obama's opponent in this election. One of my favorite adages is "the squeaky wheel gets the grease." I believe that Barack Obama and the Democratic Party are squeaking. Loudly. And on November 4th Middle America will grab their grease cans and head to the polls. But what do I know? kt 8/28/2008 |
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